Cyclone Murasu Forms Over the Bay of Bengal and Aims at Andhra Pradesh

India's east coast is bracing for its second cyclone in a week. A deep depression over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwest at 23 km/h and intensified into Cyclonic Storm Murasu at 11:30 a.m. IST on Sunday, November 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The name Murasu was contributed by India under the regional naming protocol.

At that hour the storm was centred near latitude 12.1°N and longitude 85.3°E, over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal — about 560 kilometres east-southeast of Chennai, 660 kilometres south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 630 kilometres east-southeast of Nellore, 640 kilometres southeast of Machilipatnam and 680 kilometres east-southeast of Ongole. The IMD issued a cyclone alert for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts.

The IMD expects Murasu to keep intensifying as it moves west-northwest, becoming a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal around Monday morning, November 2. From there it is forecast to turn northwest and cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur during the midnight hours of Monday into Tuesday — from 11:30 p.m. IST on November 2 to 4:00 a.m. on November 3.

At landfall the IMD expects maximum sustained winds of 100 to 110 km/h, gusting to 120 km/h. Forecasters note the storm is drawing on a favourable environment — sea-surface temperatures of 29–30°C, low to moderate easterly wind shear and good upper-level outflow — although model guidance differed on whether strengthening would be rapid overnight or more gradual into Monday morning. As with every landfall forecast, the exact crossing point and hour can still shift with each new bulletin.

What makes Murasu's timing hard is where it is going. It would be the second cyclone over the Bay of Bengal during the ongoing northeast monsoon, and its predecessor, the very severe Cyclone Arnab, made landfall near Narsapur on October 28 — the northern end of the very stretch Murasu is now forecast to cross. Coastal districts are still contending with Arnab's aftermath and recovery work.

A second severe landfall within days raises the stakes beyond wind speed alone: saturated ground, weakened structures and already-strained local response teams all change what the same rainfall does. The IMD's warning is aimed at a coast that has had almost no recovery window, which is why preparations are starting while the storm is still hundreds of kilometres offshore.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh faces the greatest rainfall threat. The IMD expects light to moderate rain at many places on Sunday with heavy rain at isolated places, intensifying on Monday to heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places, then heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places on Tuesday and heavy rain at isolated places on Wednesday.

The rain shield extends well beyond the landfall district: Rayalaseema is in line for heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places on Monday and Tuesday, Tamil Nadu and Telangana for heavy rain at isolated places on those days, and south Odisha for an expanding area of heavy to very heavy rain into Tuesday and Wednesday. Fishermen and coastal residents should follow IMD bulletins and local administration instructions as the warnings step up from alert toward landfall.

Murasu's next 48 hours will be told bulletin by bulletin: each IMD update will either confirm the severe-cyclone track toward Nellore–Narsapur or bend it, and the difference matters street by street at the coast. WorldEye's hurricane tracker follows active tropical cyclones on one globe — hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are the same phenomenon in different ocean basins — and the weather radar pages show the rain bands as they come ashore. The IMD's bulletins remain the authoritative forecast; the globe is where you watch the system itself.

Our report on Super Typhoon In-fa in the Pacific followed the same pattern on the other side of Asia this week: a powerful storm, a narrow landfall window, and coasts preparing in daylight for a midnight arrival. For Andhra Pradesh, that arrival is now about a day away.