Kilauea's Next Lava Fountains Slip Again: USGS Pushes Episode 56 to November 2–9

Episode 56 will not make Halloween. The U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), in its daily update issued at 8:42 a.m. HST on Friday, October 30, states plainly that the Halema'uma'u eruption of Kilauea remains paused following episode 55 on October 17 — and that the forecast for episode 56 fountaining has been pushed to November 2–9, 2026.

That is the latest in a series of slips. The window stood at October 30 to November 5 in the October 25 update, moved to October 31 to November 6 a day later as summit swelling plateaued, and has now shifted again. Each move tracks the same instrument: the tiltmeters that measure how fast the summit is reinflating as magma refills the reservoir beneath Halema'uma'u crater. The observatory's October 30 analysis says slow, steady inflation continues at the summit, and bases the November 2–9 window on current deformation trends, assuming the chamber follows patterns established during previous episodes.

Paused does not mean dark. Overnight into the October 30 update, intermittent moderate-to-strong glow was seen from the west vent, with weaker, intermittent glow from the north vent — the signature of hot material sitting close to the surface in a crater that is recharging rather than erupting. Four earthquakes smaller than magnitude 1.5 were recorded in and around Kaluapele, the summit caldera, in the 24 hours covered by the update.

Kilauea's volcano alert level and aviation color code remain at ADVISORY and YELLOW. HVO continues to monitor the volcano closely and stays in contact with Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park and Hawai'i County Civil Defense about eruptive hazards. This update follows the watch we set out in Kilauea episode 56: what to watch for — the event is the same, but the date has now moved twice, which is itself the news.

The honest caveat is built into the observatory's own analysis. The buildup to episode 55 differed substantially from previous episodes: summit tilt rose beyond levels typically seen before fountaining, punctuated by long stretches of flat or negative tilt, and the episode was preceded by 39 days of intermittent lava overflows — the longest precursory period of the current eruption — during which several short-lived vents opened in Halema'uma'u and a shallow dike was emplaced beneath Kaluapele.

Because of that unusual run-up, HVO warns that uncertainty remains over whether summit deformation will follow a consistent enough pattern to forecast the next episode precisely. In other words, November 2–9 is the observatory's best model-based window, not a schedule. If inflation stalls again, the window will move again; if it accelerates, HVO will say so in a morning update.

Kilauea has been erupting episodically from vents in Halema'uma'u since December 23, 2024. Fountaining episodes generally last less than 12 hours and are separated by pauses of two weeks or more, and episode 55 fit the shape if not the buildup: it began at 3:19 a.m. HST on October 17 and ended abruptly at 9:03 a.m. the same day, with a maximum fountain height of about 720 feet (220 meters) from the north vent and a plume reaching roughly 25,000 feet above sea level.

The pause since then reached 13 days on October 30 and will pass two weeks this weekend. When episode 56 does begin, recent history says to expect hours, not days, of fountaining — which is why the forecast window matters to anyone hoping to see it, and why a two-day slip is worth reporting rather than quietly editing.

The glow HVO describes is exactly what the summit cameras show on a clear night. WorldEye's volcano webcams collect live views of active craters worldwide, and the dedicated Kilauea volcano webcam page is the one to keep open from November 2: if fountaining starts, it will be visible there as it happens, day or night.

Until then, the story is a tiltmeter creeping upward at a pace the observatory calls slow and steady — and a window, November 2–9, that the mountain will either keep or move again.