NOAA Says G1 Storms Are Likely Friday and Saturday: Aurora Watch for November 6–7

The aurora odds improve at the end of this week. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said in its 3-day forecast, issued at 12:30 UTC on Thursday, November 5, that G1 (minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on November 6–7, due to coronal hole high-speed stream influences.

The greatest expected three-hour Kp index for November 5–7 is 5.00, which is the G1 threshold, SWPC said. The past 24 hours, by contrast, were quiet: the greatest observed three-hour Kp was 3, below NOAA scale levels — so this is a forecast step up, not a storm already in progress.

SWPC's Kp breakdown puts the strongest window at 00–03 UTC on Saturday, November 7, at Kp 5.00 (G1), with the preceding period — 21–00 UTC on November 6 — at 4.67, just below the G1 line. Activity builds through Friday evening UTC, with Kp 4.00 expected at 18–21 UTC on November 6.

For North American watchers, that timing is promising: 00–03 UTC on November 7 is Friday evening, 7–10 p.m. EST. EarthSky's November 5 sun report, describing the same system, expected active conditions on November 6 as a glancing blow from a November 1 coronal mass ejection combines with the early arrival of fast solar wind, and active conditions continuing November 7 as the coronal hole stream arrives.

A coronal hole — a region of the sun's outer atmosphere where the magnetic field opens into space — is rotating into a position where its fast solar wind can reach Earth. EarthSky noted on November 5 that the large, L-shaped coronal hole it has tracked since November 3 is rotating into a geoeffective position, and because it is so large, part of it already faces Earth, so its high-speed stream may arrive early.

EarthSky also reported the geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled over the past day, with Kp values of 1 to 3, and that a slow coronal mass ejection from November 1 had a modelled arrival around November 5 that could add to the stream's effect. SWPC's own rationale is narrower and official: G1 or greater storms are likely on November 6–7 due to the coronal hole stream.

A G1 storm is the entry level of NOAA's geomagnetic scale: it typically brightens the aurora at high latitudes rather than pushing it deep into mid-latitudes. EarthSky said that if the November 1 ejection and the stream both contribute, high-latitude watchers in northern Scotland, Scandinavia and similar latitudes could get a show.

That is the honest expectation to plan around — a good night for the far north and the northern horizon of border regions under dark, clear skies, not a guaranteed display for everyone. Cloud, moonlight and light pollution will decide more gardens than Kp will, which is why checking a live camera before driving out is the practical move.

WorldEye's aurora webcams and northern lights webcams collections gather live night-sky cameras from aurora country, so you can see whether the oval is lighting up before you head outside. If the stream arrives early or stronger than forecast, those cameras show it first.

SWPC will update its 3-day forecast daily, and its rationale can change as the stream arrives. The plan for this weekend is simple: watch Friday evening North American time — Saturday 00–03 UTC — keep expectations at the G1 level SWPC actually forecast, and let the cameras confirm it.