Typhoon Cempaka Enters as Samuel, Peaks at 150 km/h and Turns Away

Typhoon Cempaka's visit to Philippine waters was brief, strong and — for everyone on land — uneventful. The storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning, November 9, where the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) gave it the local name Samuel, and issued Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 1 at 11:00 a.m. confirming that no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal was in effect anywhere in the country.

Samuel is the Philippines' 19th tropical cyclone of the year, PAGASA weather specialist Aldczar D. Aurelio noted in the agency's Monday morning briefing. Even at entry, the forecast was for a cameo rather than a landfall: the typhoon was expected to recurve and exit the PAR within the day, and Aurelio stated plainly that it was not expected to affect or make landfall in any part of the country.

That is how it played out. By PAGASA's 4:00 p.m. advisory on Tuesday, November 10, reported by BusinessWorld, Cempaka — Samuel — was last located 1,940 kilometres northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, still holding maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometres per hour with gusts of 185 km/h, continuing to move away, and not expected to make landfall anywhere in the Philippines.

As of PAGASA's Tuesday afternoon advisory, the storm's centre was about 1,940 kilometres northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon — far out over the open Pacific, well outside the PAR it briefly clipped — and moving away from the country. PAGASA said Cempaka is not affecting the Philippines and is not expected to make landfall anywhere in the country.

The position is close to, but slightly short of, the track PAGASA forecast in Bulletin No. 1, which had the storm 2,010 kilometres east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon by 8:00 p.m. Tuesday at 130 km/h. Instead, the typhoon has held its peak strength of 150 km/h longer than that forecast point implied, while following the same general path away to the east-northeast.

At 10:00 a.m. on Monday, an hour before Bulletin No. 1, PAGASA placed Samuel's centre about 1,370 kilometres east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, at 23.9°N, 134.7°E. The storm then carried maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near its centre, gusts to 150 km/h, a central pressure of 980 hPa, and tropical cyclone-force winds extending up to 300 kilometres outward.

PAGASA expected the peak to come by Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, and its Bulletin No. 1 forecast table put the storm at 150 km/h by 8:00 a.m. Tuesday, 1,675 kilometres east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. Tuesday's advisory confirmed the storm had reached and maintained that 150 km/h peak — the strongest reading of Cempaka's PAR passage, recorded entirely over open water.

WorldEye followed Cempaka's intensification southwest of Iwo To on Sunday, when the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast a Monday peak. The PAR entry, the Samuel renaming and the confirmed 150 km/h peak are the new developments that close that forecast out.

No. No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal was raised anywhere in the Philippines at any point in Samuel's passage, and PAGASA said the storm was less likely to directly affect the country's weather throughout the forecast period. The hazards the agency did flag came from the Northeast Monsoon, enhanced by the typhoon's circulation: strong to gale-force gusts across much of Luzon and the Visayas and parts of Mindanao, particularly in coastal and upland areas, persisting through Tuesday and into Wednesday.

The sharpest warnings were for the sea. PAGASA forecast very rough to rough seas along Luzon's northern coastlines — up to 5.5 metres on the northern seaboard of Batanes and up to 5.0 metres around the Babuyan Islands — and advised all mariners to remain in port or seek safe harbour where seas were very rough, with small craft told not to venture out at all. A Gale Warning over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon was expected to follow on Monday afternoon.

The weakening phase. PAGASA's Bulletin No. 1 track had Samuel accelerating east-northeastward over the open Pacific and steadily losing strength: 130 km/h by Tuesday evening, 110 km/h and a downgrade to severe tropical storm by Wednesday morning, and 95 km/h by Wednesday evening, some 2,845 kilometres east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. Unfavourable atmospheric conditions, rather than land, are what end this storm.

For the Philippines, the weather story of the next 24 hours belongs to the three systems PAGASA described on Tuesday — the northeast monsoon, the easterlies and a shear line — bringing rains with flooding and landslide risks over parts of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao, while the typhoon that briefly shared the map moves away.

You can follow Cempaka's remaining track and the monsoon weather it leaves behind on WorldEye's hurricane tracker and weather radar, part of the live globe of 74,229 cameras and weather layers.